GP2 2008 Preview - Winning down to an ART?

It struck me the other day that there probably really aren't going to be many seats available for young F1 aspirants come the end of the season. OK, so Rubens Barrichello might call it a day and create a vacancy at Honda, and his near-contemporary David Coulthard is tipped to vacate the Red Bull seat after 15 years in the sport - but nobody else really looks like they are coming up on retirement. Of course, it's more than possible that some of this year's grid will be given the heave-ho come season's end - Nakajima and Sutil might justifiably be feeling a little nervous right now - but certainly we are not looking at an awful lot of vacancies appearing. And certainly not at the business end of the grid.

All of which might well be weighing on the minds of this year's GP2 competitors. More and more of late, it is from the GP2 series that drivers have made the leap to Formula 1, and with the demise of Champ Car, not to mention the seemingly waning significance of the Renault World Series, that's the way we can expect it to stay. The odd F1 team might continue to take a chance on an F3 hotshot - as happened with Sebastien Vettel and Adrian Sutil, but for the most part, what opportunities do come up will go to the GP2 front runners.

All of which is one very good reason for F1 fans to keep close tabs on GP2 this year. Not the only good reason, though. The main reason to watch GP2 is that it has consistently provided the most exciting, close-fought single seater racing around. The cars have almost as much power as current Grand Prix cars, a touch less grip, and rely to a much greater extent on under-body aerodynamics to generate downforce, which enables the cars to run much closer together through corners than F1 cars can. The result is that overtaking is a much more regular occurrence than it is either F3 or Grand Prix racing.

Perhaps the most pertinent question, though, is whether there is anyone on this year's GP2 grid who might have what it takes to follow in the footsteps of Rosberg, Kovalainen, Hamilton, Piquet Jr and Glock. On the evidence of the new GP2 Asia winter series, it just might be that ART man Romain Grosjean does have it. Without any previous GP2 experience, he went up against several second and third year drivers and dominated the championship.

In past years, there has always been at least the semblance of a title battle in GP2. Nico Rosberg and Heikki Kovalainen fought it out to the very last round in 2005. Lewis Hamilton always looked the favourite in 2006, but Nelson Piquet Jr. made sure he didn't have it all entirely his own way. Timo Glock was very much the frontrunner last year, but Lucas Di Grassi nonetheless took the title down to the wire - aided by a healthy dose of luck.

If somebody is going to take the fight to Grosjean, who will it be? My hunch is we may need look no further than his ART team mate Luca Filippi. Filippi endured a rather lacklustre start to his GP2 career with FMS in 2006, but began to look much more convincing last year with SuperNova. Now in his third year, and in one of the very top teams, it's very much make-or-break for the Italian, and the ART intra-team battle could be intriguing indeed.

It's easy to forget that last year, ART didn't actually win the title. ISport's new lineup doesn't really have anyone of Timo Glock's calibre, but Bruno Senna and Karun Chandhok are both proven race winners. Senna remains something of an enigma: blindingly quick one weekend, and utterly hopeless and adrift the next. A season's experience and familiarity with the tracks may make the difference, or may not. Karun Chandhok came seemingly from nowhere to score some very impressive winners with the unfancied Durango team last year. If GP2 Asia is any guide, he has the pace, but will really need to work to iron out the errors which cost him a number of good results.

Who else might have it within them to make a challenge for the title? Well, it would seem foolish to write off Arden - they may not ever have won a GP2 title, but they have been consistent front-runners and were the team to beat in the last years of F3000. Lead driver Sebastien Buemi was the man who came closest to Romain Grosjean in the F3 Euroseries last year. In his sporadic GP2 outings last year, he seemed hindered by the fact he was constantly jumping from one single seater series to another, but that might work in his favour this year - as he'll at least know the tracks.

Italian veteran Giorgio Pantano will be back for a fourth year of GP2, and should provide a decent barometer for the overall quality of the field. It seems that the former Jordan Grand Prix driver has the pace to win races, but lacks what is required to challenge for the title. This year, he's paired up with Javier Villa at Racing Engineering. If the field really isn't as strong as in past years, perhaps he'll finally get another single seater title to add to his 2000 German F3 trophy.

I'd be surprised if anyone I haven't already mentioned wins the title this year, but there's plenty more drivers in the field who are worth watching, and might well win races. I've always reckoned Alvaro Parente to have been one of the more cruelly under-rated single seater drivers of the last few years, and the reigning Renault World Series champion finally gets a GP2 shot with SuperNova. The man who ran him close to the title last year, Ben Hanley, is also making the switch and is partnered with Vitaly Petrov, who is doing a fine job of dispelling the notion that Russian single seater drivers are always out of their depth on the world stage.

I was more convinced of Fisichella Motorsport's prospects when they add Andy Soucek on the books. News that his place is to be taken by Roldan Rodriguez doesn't exactly inspire optimism. On the other hand, Adrian Valles has shown well in the GP2 Asia series after a somewhat inconclusive initial period in GP2. Certainly the Force India driver's squad will benefit from the fact that they no longer need waste a seat on Jason Tahinci now that Petrol Ofisi money has been replaced by cash from Force India owner Vijay Mallya's Kingfisher brand.

After a year of anonymity with rather second-rate drivers, Piquet Minardi Sports have been flying in testing with the mercurial Pastor Maldonado and team mate Andreas Zuber, lest we forget, was really not all that far behind Timo Glock on outright pace when they were team mates at ISport last year. All the same, the Austrian driver must know that, going into his third year, he really has to get the job done this year if he is to stand a chance of progressing.

Others worth watching? Well Kamui Kobayashi does rather blow hot and cold, but he picked up two wins in the GP2 Asia series, so might be a good bet for a sprint race win or two. Team mate Jerome D'Ambrosio looked initially out of his depth in the Asia series, but he won the Formula Master championship against a very full field last year, and Former British F3 champion Mike Conway has switched to Trident Racing, and while his 2007 season yielded little in the way of results, he wasn't so very far off the pace of his old team mate Filippi in race conditions. Another man I wouldn't expect to be in the running for the title, but who might well win races. He was devastatingly quick at Silverstone last year - and this time round, he knows all the tracks.

In summary, while I can't help thinking the title race may not be as close as in past years, there's enough good, serious runners to ensure that the GP2 series will be worth watching. I'll certainly be tuning in to the racing this weekend. A final piece of news (at least for those of you in the UK) - good or bad, depending on how you look at it - is that ITV now have the rights to the GP2 series and will be broadcasting on ITV4. For those, like me, who came to love the commentary provided by Martin Haven and Gareth Rees on Eurosport, this is a shame in a way. But on the other hand, ITV has much greater potential reach, and it would be good to see the championship pick up the kind of audience that it really deserves to.

F1 2007: Ferrari vs Mclaren; Alonso vs Raikkonen?

The interminable winter wait is almost over. In just over a week's time, the F1 teams will be down in Melbourne, Australia and more likely than not, I'll be crawling out of bed in the middle of the night to get a fix of Grand Prix racing after the best part of six months off.

Clash of the titans

2005 was all about Alonso vs Raikkonen and Renault against Mclaren. In 2006, the Mclaren never really seemed at home on its tyres and the interest was in the battle between Alonso and Schumacher, Renault and Ferrari. If I've read the winter testing runes right, and this is not always an easy thing to do, then it looks as though 2007 is going to be about Alonso and Raikkonen once again, and the battle between Maranello and Woking. With Michael Schumacher having departed the scene after what feels like half a life time, it appears that the heirs apparent to his crown have landed up in the best two cars as the 2007 season begins. At first, Alonso seemed a little upset, somewhat unnerved, about the 2007 Mclaren, convinced that it wasn't quite quick enough to take on Ferrari. Of late, though, the noises coming out of Mclaren have been sounding a good deal more positive, and it seems that Ron's boys think they have what it takes to take the fight to Ferrari. Ferrari have never lacked for confidence through the winter, and have topped the timesheets more often than not from the moment their 2007 car first turned a wheel. Everything suggests that they are just a little way ahead of Mclaren, but the gap is too small and winter testing too unreliable a barometer of form to be certain.

A role for the understudies?

If, on the face of it, this year's title battle looks as if it will be between Alonso and Raikkonen, it is worth remembering that some people who ought to know are suggesting both may face an unexpectedly strong challenge from their respective team mates. I wouldn't have fingered Felipe Massa as a serious rival to Raikkonen, but an awful lot of people, including former Mclaren man Jo Ramirez and F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone expect the Brazilian to keep the Finn honest. He does after all have the advantages of incumbency, of a learning year alongside Michael Schumacher, of much greater experience with Bridgestone's tyres and of being managed by Jean Todt's son. All the same, I'd be surprised if his seemingly superior testing form translates into a season-long challenge to Raikkonen. On his day, though, Massa undoubtedly can be very quick, and he makes many fewer mistakes than he once did.

The idea that Lewis Hamilton will be keeping Alonso awake at night is probably still more far-fetched. F1 Racing magazine may recently have insisted Alonso and Hamilton: It will be closer than you think... but they are a British magazine, and this is almost certainly a case of drumming up enthusiasm for the home hero. Hamilton may be very good indeed, but even a Schumacher or a Prost might have baulked at the thought of spending their first year in a front-running team alongside quite possibly the best driver in the field. Even if he has the same raw kind of ability as Alonso, he'll be giving away six years in experience. If he can get anywhere close to the reigning champion, he'll have done a very good job. That said, if he really is as good as he looked in GP2 last year, there will be days when he'll be one to watch.

Renault on the downward spiral?

The chances are, this year will not see Renault bring home the constructors or drivers championship for a third year in succession. Thus far, the R27 has been more noticeable for its truly horrid paint-scheme (Motorsports Ramblings' peripatetic fashion correspondent described it as "looking like someone threw up over the Swedish flag") than for its outright pace. Truth be told, as in 1994-95 the team's success has perhaps owed much more to team work and the sheer genius of its lead driver, than to the outright pace of the team's cars. With the inexperienced Heikki Kovalainen paired with Fisichella - a man we already know is not Alonso's equal - that is one ace card Renault will not have this year. The team have done an awful lot with much more limited resources than their main rivals over the last few years, but I suspect that 2007 may be the year their luck finally runs out. Nonetheless, in Kovalainen, they have a young driver who just might have a very promising career in front of him, and there will be plenty reason to keep ones' eyes on the vile orange devices this season.

The Ultimate Driving Machine?

If Renault have been disappointing in the run up to the 2007 season, BMW look like they might be the team to spring a major surprise. As Sauber, they were kn own for being a solid, competently run operation, but never more than midfielders. A strong injection of German cash, however, appears to have worked wonders at Hinwil, and Autosport, at least, seem to think the car is right there with the Mclarens and Ferraris in terms of pace, even if, for now, they don't appear to be on top of their reliability problems. I would be surprised if they were able to challenge Ferrari or Mclaren consistently, but its certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that they could leapfrog Renault to be 'best of the rest', or that they could win a race this year.

Their driver line up is probably as good as any outside of the top 2 teams, too. In Heidfeld, they have a man with a strong work ethic who will be exactly as quick as the car. He may not be in the class of Alonso or Raikkonen, but he's probably as good as any of the other established drivers. His team mate, Robert Kubica, is one of a quartet of new drivers who may yet prove to be from the very top drawer. He'll be in his first full season, and I don't doubt there will be mistakes and there will be off-days, but I hope and expect that there are also going to be days when the young Pole is truly sublime.

Troubles in the Orient

Four experienced drivers. Proper funding in place, and Japanese technical know-how on hand. Nonetheless, it just does not appear to be working out for either of the two big Japanese car manufacturers in Formula 1. Toyota look poised to overtake General Motors as the largest car manufacturer in the world this year. Given the resources available to them, one might expect that this year could be the year that they finally start to make a real impact in Grand Prix racing. Unfortunately, all the signs are that this is no more likely to be their breakthrough year than last year. In the hands of Ralf Schumacher, the new car has been steady and unexceptional - rather like its driver. Jarno Trulli, whom it was widely rumoured last year would walk away into retirement, seems even more underwhelmed by the new TF107. Doubtless, they will continue to pick up plenty points finishes in the lower reaches of the top 8, and doubtless too, there will be occasions on which they appear inexplicably far up the grid only to sink back on race day, but I would be surprised if they do any better than they did last year.

Doing as well as last year would appear to be a tough target for Honda. Their new RA107 is far and away the most striking new car on the grid, elegantly waisted at the rear, with a very small frontal area in comparison to just about every other car on the grid. There is no getting away from the fact that car just has just not been quick though. Jenson Button, going into his 8th season of Formula 1, is likely to find this immensely frustrating. Rubens Barrichello, who is going into his 14th season, is perhaps more likely to simply go to sleep this year. Already there is talk of a major update to the car at the third race in Sepang but given the extremely limited time in which to sort out the RA107's flaws, this talk is likely more PR fluff than reality. Don't expect the sponsor-less 'earth car' to repeat Honda's Hungary 2006 feat and actually win any races.

Dietrich's Flying Circus

Nick Fry's men can at least console themselves with the thought that at least they are not in Red Bull's shoes. With a Renault engine, Mark Webber on board and an Adrian Newey-penned chassis, 2007 should be the year when Red Bull really start to deliver. Unfortunately, it looks as though this time, the Newey magic has simply not come off. Thus far, the car has been slow, unreliable and can't even comfortably accommodate their lanky lead driver (an echo of Newey's earliest F1 cars, the Leyton Marches of the late 1980s). In theory, Red Bull have the kind of technical strength in depth that should allow them to recover from this rather unpromising position, but in reality, rumours of team instability and discontent suggest it may be difficult to get everyone pulling in the same direction.

Mark Webber must be wondering what he has to do to get into the right car at the right time. Turning down a Renault drive to go to Williams might only look foolish in retrospect, but walking out on Williams to go to Red Bull at least arguably looked like a silly move, even at the time. He might have to content himself with finishing off veteran Coulthard's career. If the Scot can hold his own against Webber, he just might hang on in the sport for another year or two, but it does rather look like this could be his final season of F1.

Looking up down Grove way?

Frank Williams' team had a frankly atrocious 2006. It would be easy to blame the fact that they had customer engines, but all told, the Cosworth V8s were probably the strongest part of the package last year. And if they had a reputation for blowing up, that appeared to have more to do with their installation in the car than anything that was fundamentally wrong on Cosworth's side.

There have been dark murmurings that the team faces a cash crisis, and that it is little more than a Toyota B-Team these days, but in the face of all this, they have actually looked pretty quick in pre-season testing. And they no longer have to pay the engine bills. Nico Rosberg flattered to deceive a little last year, but with a year's experience under his belt, he might finally start to live up to the promise he showed in GP2, and in his first couple of F1 races. Alex Wurz's re-entry into Formula 1 perhaps says more about the decline of Williams and their inability to attract any more promising drivers, but the Austrian test-veteran is competent, hard working and ticks all the boxes apart from the one marked 'inspirationally fast'. Given their recent troubles, he might be just what Williams need right now. If pre-season testing is anything to go by, they could end up embarrassing their vastly richer engine suppliers.

Also Appearing...

With the FIA retaining the 'eliminate 6' qualifying session, we will once again probably see slightly less of Super Aguri, Squadro Toro Rosso and Spyker than we did last year. I'd like to see Spyker win this little battle, firstly because they have developed their own car, and secondly because I happen to think that Adrian Sutil might be someone very special indeed. Unfortunately, this is rather unlikely. The new car is really just an updated Midland M16, and one rather suspects that even with Mike Gascoygne's input, that will struggle against a 2007 Red Bull and a 2006 Honda.

I'd expect Super Aguri, with a mildly updated version of last year's Honda and two experienced drivers in Takuma Sato and Anthony Davidson, to emerge the best of this bunch. Sato has vastly more experience than any of the other tail-end drivers, while Davidson spent much of last year testing the car that he will now be racing. Super Aguri are a surprisingly well-drilled team, who were able to achieve a lot more with a five year old Arrows chassis than really ought to have been possible. Inevitably, this battle is likely to be marred by arguments over whether Toro Rosso and Super Aguri should really be on the grid at all, given that they are running a repainted Red Bull RB3 and a lightly reworked Honda RA106 respectively. To my mind, the sensible solution would be not to allow either team to score constructors championship points, but a strict reading of the rules arguably makes this difficult.

As it happens, I suspect that this year Toro Rosso may end up at the very back. Adrian Newey's RB3 is a complex car, much more so than the Toro Rosso/Minardi mechanics are really used to working with. Worse than that, its a rather troublesome car, and while the works team might have the resources to sort it out, the Toro Rosso boys are liable to find life rather harder.

To me, the most interesting thing about this tail-end squabble is that it is being fought out between proper racing drivers. No rich chancers bringing pots of cash to the table - Liuzzi, Speed, Albers, Sutil, Sato and Davidson are all proper racing drivers and if nothing else, like everyone on the grid, they will all be out to beat their team mates.